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8 October 2009

Johannesburg Residential Property Barometer
FNB - South Africa Article
Interpretation/Conclusion
Although not expected to be a strong recovery, it is clear that a recovery in the Joburg residential market is well under way. Demand activity has risen consistently over the past 4 quarters, while other key indicators such as average time on the market and percentage of sellers achieving their asking price have also improved. Deeds data runs a bit behind, but while area price deflation was still widespread as at the 2nd quarter, one could begin to observe some of the Joburg regions' price indices beginning to turn for the better.

To date, the market improvement is largely the result of interest rate cuts, and banks' responses to better market conditions by relaxing lending criteria has reinforced the trend.
Johannesburg FNB Property Barometer

Cape Town Residential Property Barometer
FNB - South Africa Article
Interpretation/Conclusion
Although not expected to be a strong recovery, the 3rd quarter Barometer points to significantly stronger situation in the Cape Town residential market, following a period in which demand activity battled to improve. The 3rd quarter jump in demand was significant, while other key indicators such as average time on the market and percentage of sellers achieving their asking price have also improved. Deeds data runs a bit behind, but while area price deflation was still widespread as at the 2nd quarter, one could begin to observe some of the Cape Town regions' price indices beginning to turn for the better.

To date, the market improvement is largely the result of interest rate cuts, and banks' responses to better market conditions by relaxing lending criteria has reinforced the trend. In the near term, though, the economy is expected to provide more support for the market as we emerge from recession.
Cape Town FNB Property Barometer

Absa House Price Index
Absa - South Africa
House prices set to rise again in near future
The residential property market is still experiencing tough times on the back of an economy that is in recession, which adversely impacts the household sector over a wide front. There are, however, indications that the worst may be over for the local economy and that a recovery is to commence towards the end of the year. House price trends appear to have turned the corner and with mortgage interest rates down by 500 basis points compared with late last year, as well as the recently selective relaxation of mortgage lending criteria by banks, property market conditions in general are expected to improve, but the process of recovery will most probably be slow and gradual.

In view of nominal year-on-year house price deflation slowing down over the past few months, prices may start rising on an annual basis again in the near future if current trends are to continue. Based on these trends as well as nominal price deflation of 2,1% on average in the first nine months of 2009 compared with the same period in 2008, prices may record a decline of less than 2% for the full year. In real terms, house prices are forecast to decline by around 9% this year. In 2010, nominal price growth of between 2% and 3% is expected, with prices forecast to decline somewhat further in real terms next year based on projections for nominal house price growth and headline consumer price inflation.
Absa House Price Index

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